Maotai, Guizhou (600519): Imbalance between supply and demand is the core waiting for the direct operation plan

Maotai, Guizhou (600519)杭州桑拿: Imbalance between supply and demand is the core waiting for the direct operation plan
In the event, Moutai announced its semi-annual report and realized total operating income of 411.73 ppm, an increase of 16 in ten years.8%, net profit attributable to mother is 199.51 ppm, an increase of 26 in ten years.56%; operating income is expected to reach 186 in the second quarter.9.2 billion, an increase of 10.89%, achieving a net profit of 87.3 trillion, the same increase of 20.29%.  Brief comment on the second quarter revenue and profit were lower than expected: the company’s Q2 revenue and profit growth rate reached 10 respectively.89% and 20.29%, a significant decrease from the previous quarter (Q1 revenue and profit increased by 22.21%, 31.91%).Of which Moutai liquor income was 152.9.7 billion, +12.33%; series wine income 25.230,0杭州桑拿00 yuan, + 9.5%, the proportion further increased to 14.16%, the highest growth rate of series wine over the same period last year was mainly due to the expected growth of series wine dealers. In order to further optimize the marketing network layout and enhance the overall strength of the dealers, the company has cleaned up some sauce and fragrance wine dealers.And eliminated, the report reduced the number of 494 distributors of sauce series.  Moutai sales company data is better than the company’s statement: According to Moutai Company’s semi-annual sales company operation, as of June 30, Moutai Sales Company’s sales of Moutai liquor increased by 24.5%, achieve budget + 32%, and complete 50% of sales.According to company 3.The estimated amount of the 18 budget is estimated to be about 16,000 tons in the first half of the year, of which about 8,000 tons will be shipped in Q1 and about 8,000 tons will be shipped in Q2.Shipment volume in 19Q2 increased by approximately 18Q2. Moutai’s shipments increased by approximately 18Q2. Moutai’s advance receipts decreased by 32 trillion, and Moutai’s shipments are estimated at approximately 5,300 tons.The feedback from grassroots interviews revealed that the significant increase in the proportion of non-standard issuance of Q2 is expected to increase the ton price by about 3%. The confirmed amount of Q2 Maotai report is about 7,400 tons, and each 18Q2 report corresponds to about 6,800 tons of Maotai wine sales, an increase of about 9%.In the first half of the year, the company’s real sales income (alcoholic income + advance receipts change amount) + 32% each time, basically in line with the real sales situation.  The volume of direct sales has been on schedule for two years, and the volume and price have risen since the beginning of the year: Since the beginning of the year, Moutai’s approval price has increased from about 1,700 yuan to the current nationwide level of about 2,100 yuan, and shipments have increased compared with most of the same period last year.unbalanced.In 19Q2, the direct sales ratio increased significantly on schedule in the short term.10,000 yuan, accounting for 7.45% dropped to 2.86%, compared with 5 in the first quarter.05% further reduced, direct sales breakthrough volume as scheduled, waiting for the direct operation plan landing taxes and sales costs fell, the profitability steadily increased, the company’s gross profit margin in 19Q12 91.57%, increase by 1 every year.03pct; net profit margin 52.01%, an increase of 3 per year.11 points.  In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio is 4.83%, same as minus 1.41 points; management expense ratio 6.72%, slightly decreased by 0.26 points; period expense ratio 12.04%, down 1.9pct, the cost rate continues to decline.At the end of the first half of the year, the company received 122 funds in advance.5.7 billion, an increase of 8 from Q1.700 million.  Net operating cash flow of Q2 was 228.9.8 billion, an increase of 78 previously.89% of the cash received from selling goods and providing services was 205.7.1 billion, an increase of 34.94%.Absorbed interbank deposit surplus 235.660,000 yuan, a big increase of 120 in ten years.9.3 billion.  Investment suggestion: We believe that the short-term performance exceeded expectations and exceeded excessive explanations. Since the initial stage of Moutai, both volume and price have risen. The imbalance between supply and demand should be the core of attention.  We expect the company’s revenue growth rate to be 15 in 2019-2020.90% 15.09%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers was 20 respectively.6%, 17.4%, the corresponding EPS is 33.80, 39.69 yuan, maintain BUY rating, target price of 1150 yuan.